美国转向亚洲勿忘拉上欧洲

Opinion
Want World Domination? Size Matters
By RICHARD N. ROSECRANCE July 30, 2013
观点
美国转向亚洲勿忘拉上欧洲
理查德·N·罗斯克兰斯 2013年07月30日
HORACE GREELEY, Napoleon Bonaparte and Cecil Rhodes may seem strange bedfellows, but they all agreed that territorial, political and economic size was critical to a country’s success. They wanted more land — in the West, in Europe or overseas. In 1904, Halford Mackinder, an Oxford geographer, told an august assemblage at the Royal Geographical Society that the country that controlled the Russian “heartland,” a frostbitten Central Asian steppe, would dominate “the world island” — the combined territory of Europe and North Asia — and in time come to rule the world. A centrally located piece of territory like the Russian plain, Mackinder argued, could be expanded West and East without the need for naval power.
霍勒斯·格里利(Horace Greeley)、拿破仑·波拿巴(Napoleon Bonaparte)及塞西尔·罗兹(Cecil Rhodes)这个组合可能看似怪异，但是，他们都认为领土、政权及经济的规模是一国成功的关键。他们想要在西方、欧洲或海外拥有更多土地。1904年，牛津地理学家哈尔福德·麦金德(Halford Mackinder)在皇家地理学会(Royal Geographical Society)的庄严集会上称，控制俄国“心脏地带”的国家将会控制“世界岛”，而且有一天会统治世界。在此处，心脏地带指的是风刀霜剑肆虐的中亚大草原，而世界岛指的是欧洲和北亚的全部领土。麦金德称，像俄国平原这种处于中心地带的领土可以不需要海军力量就向东西两个方向扩张。
As it turned out, Russia was then facing both war and revolution, and could not fully control the heartland, to say nothing of ruling the entire world. But Mackinder’s terms pointed to the critical role of territorial and economic size in the competition among nations.
结果，当时俄国既有战争又有革命，不能完全控制这个心脏地带，更遑论统治全世界。但是，麦金德说的话，指出了领土及经济规模在国际竞争中的关键作用。
Without quoting Mackinder, President Obama and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany have recently sought to form a huge free-trade zone that would join Europe with the United States in a new Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, creating an economic power with nearly half of the world’s gross domestic product. On June 19, alongside Ms. Merkel in Berlin, Mr. Obama declared that Europe and the United States were the “[要查看本链接请先注册并登录]” and that they should “see ourselves as something bigger” in the global quest for freedom, justice and peace.
奥巴马总统及德国总理安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)最近试图成立一个巨大的自由贸易区时，并没有引用麦金德的话。但这个贸易区将会使欧洲及美国构成一个新的跨大西洋贸易投资伙伴关系，缔造一个几乎占到全球一半国内生产总值(GDP)的经济体。6月19日，在默克尔的陪同下，奥巴马在柏林宣布，欧洲及美国是“世界经济引擎”，而且，在全球追求自由、公正及和平的过程中，我们应该“有更高追求”。
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Tim Lahan

Of course, the joining of the two continents would increase trade and employment. It would facilitate Mr. Obama’s goal of doubling American exports and increasing investment and consumption. Ms. Merkel would smile as German cars and medical equipment poured into American markets, and Washington would return the favor with microprocessors, biotechnical devices and liquid natural gas. If the deal is concluded next year as planned, economists estimate the creation at least one million jobs over 10 years, and a 0.5 percent increase in G.D.P., on both sides of the Atlantic. The new pact would draw together 259 of the Fortune 500 companies. Investment flows and tourism would bubble to new heights.
诚然，两大洲的联合将会促进贸易，增加就业，并会帮助奥巴马实现令美国出口翻倍及增加投资和消费的目标。默克尔乐于见到德国汽车与医疗设备涌入美国市场，作为回报，美国将输出微处理器、生物技术设备及液体天然气。如果这一合作于明年按计划完成的话，经济学家估计这将会在大西洋两岸将GDP提高0.5%，并在十年内创造至少100万个工作机会。新的协议总共会吸引财富500强(Fortune 500)中的259家。投资量及旅游业规模将会达到新高。
But the underlying reason for bridging the narrowing “Atlantic Channel” is that power is shifting east, and there is a need to reconsolidate the West. Paradoxically, closer ties with Europe will be the means by which Mr. Obama carries out his “pivot to Asia” as America and Germany bring together advanced industries and a vast population of skilled workers.
但是沟通日益缩小的“大西洋海峡”的深层原因是，权力正在向东移动，西方需要重新巩固阵脚。矛盾的是，随着美国和德国将先进工业及大量的技术工人结合在一起，奥巴马将利用与欧洲更密切的关系实现他的“转向亚洲”策略。
In the short term, China will respond (and has already responded) to this trans-Atlantic combination by strengthening its ties with the outside world. While dumping dollars and buying euros, China has sought to turn its American bond holdings into shares in American corporations. It has moved into London’s money markets and invested heavily throughout Africa. None of this has created an alternative political unit, however.
在短期内，对于这一跨大西洋合作，中国会通过加强与外界的联系作出回应（正如它现在的所作所为）。中国在放弃美元买入欧元的同时，试图将自己持有的美国债券变成美国公司的股票。中国已经进入伦敦的货币市场，并且在非洲各地大量投资。但是，这些行动都没有缔造出另外一个政治联盟。
Countries like Sudan, Zimbabwe, Myanmar and North Korea will never be pillars of a new international economic order. There is no looming political or economic counterweight to the West’s assembly of democratic nations, which earlier this month embraced Croatia as the European Union’s 28th member.
苏丹、津巴布韦、缅甸及朝鲜这种国家，永远都不可能成为新国际经济秩序的支柱。对于西方的民主国家集合而言，现在不会很快出现一个足以在政治或经济上与之抗衡的势力。本月初，这些国家接纳克罗地亚成为欧盟(European Union)的第28个成员国。
Mr. Obama’s and Ms. Merkel’s pursuit of greater democratic size is not a new objective. Strategists have always known that countries with more people, wealth and economic space can produce more and trade over a larger region. Worldwide tariff cuts have failed; what could be more appropriate than for Mr. Obama and Ms. Merkel to seek the largest alternative place in which to trade freely, thus stimulating their industries in competition with rising Eastern nations?
奥巴马与默克尔对更大的民主规模的追求，并不是一个新目标。战略家一直都知道，有更多人口、财富及经济空间的国家，能够生产更多，能够在更广泛的地区进行贸易。全球降低关税的活动已经失败；奥巴马和默克尔通过寻求一个最大的其他舞台，以进行自由贸易，由此刺激他们的产业，与正在崛起的东方国家竞争。还有比这更合适的方法吗？
The strategists of the postwar era reached similar conclusions. The State Department’s legendary policy planning chiefs George F. Kennan and Paul H. Nitze recognized that “a combination of the physical resources of Russia and China with the technical skills and machine tools of Germany and the Eastern European countries might spell a military reality more powerful than anything that could be mobilized against it.” Thus began the patient accumulation of allied nations into what became the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which was buttressed by the economically consolidating European Common Market and then the European Union.
战后的策略家得出了相似的结论。传奇的美国国务院政策计划总监乔治·F·凯南(George F. Kennan)及保罗·H·尼采(Paul H. Nitze )认识到，“中国与苏联的实体资源和德国及东欧各国的技术及机械工具加起来，将会造就强大无比的军事力量。”因此，美国就开始了培养盟国并最终建立北大西洋公约组织(North Atlantic Treaty Organization)的耐心过程。随后的欧洲共同市场(European Common Market)以及更后来的欧盟(European Union)都为北约强化了经济基础。
Under Mikhail S. Gorbachev and particularly Boris N. Yeltsin, Russia wanted to join the West and the European Union. The 1996 election led some to believe that Moscow could eventually become an approximation of Western democracy. When Vladimir V. Putin succeeded Yeltsin, however, this dream vanished as former K.G.B. agents came to dominate. And when oil prices rose, abundant energy supplies allowed Russia to conclude that it didn’t need the West, nor did it need to be democratic.
在米哈伊尔·S·戈尔巴乔夫(Mikhail S. Gorbachev)和鲍里斯·N·叶利钦(Boris N. Yeltsin)的统治下（尤其是后者），俄罗斯想要加入西方及欧盟。1996年的选举使一些人相信，该国最终会变得像是一个西方民主国家。然而，在弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)接任之后，随着前克格勃(KGB)成员的掌权，这一梦想破灭了。而且，当油价开始上涨，充足的能源供给让俄罗斯认为，自己不需要西方，也不需要民主。
Finally, victory in the cold war stemmed from a Western agglomeration of decisive economic and industrial strength. It was not an equality of power that brought the Soviet Union to heel, but a surplus of power, or an “overbalance” in the hands of the West.
最终，西方在冷战中获胜，是因为西方积聚了关键的经济及工业力量。苏联失败，并非由于它与西方势均力敌，而是由于西方强于苏联，或者说是西方在“力量失衡”中是优势一方。
THIS is not a declaration of economic war against the East. Rather, it reflects an awareness that China and others need to be brought into the West, bringing two halves of the world together. A greater American and European combination would amass $32 trillion today and much more tomorrow. A balance of power leads to conflict. But an overbalance attracts others to its economic core.
这并非在经济上对东方宣战。相反，这反映了一种意识，就是中国和其他国家需要被带进西方，需要把世界的两部分融合在一起。美国和欧洲更大程度的合作，会在今天积聚32万亿美元，并在明天积聚更多。力量平衡导致矛盾，但力量失衡会把其他国家引向经济核心。
And China is dependent on that core. Unlike Russia, China must import the majority of its oil, and its use is currently at 9.7 million barrels a day. The money to buy this petroleum and natural gas must come from exports, mainly exports to the West. Here the West maintains a continuing advantage, because China receives only about 50 percent of the “value added” of its exports. The rest is garnered by European and American companies, which provide the research and development, design, marketing and financing for most products exported from China.
而中国依赖这一核心。中国与俄罗斯不同，中国多数石油都要靠进口，现在每天消耗970万桶。购买这些石油和天然气的钱，必须来自于出口，而且主要是针对西方的出口。在这方面，西方一直保持优势，因为中国仅仅收到了约50%的出口“附加值”。剩下的部分被欧美公司拿走，因为他们为中国出口的多数商品提供了研发、设计、市场营销及融资。
For decades to come, China will have to sell in the West to gain money and access to technologies that it doesn’t yet possess. The consolidation of a Euro-American economic unit will require China to join, too, as it becomes a more open, liberal and rule-governed polity.
未来几十年，中国将必须在西方进行销售，以获取资金，及中国尚不具备的技术。随着中国变成一个更加开放、自由、法制的国家，欧美经济体的巩固将需要中国的加入。
Skeptics will argue that this is just an incremental enhancement of an already strong relationship and that the West could draw China in without this new trade deal. But America has tried and failed. It tried to form a bilateral bloc with China, the G-2, in 2009, but China’s leaders refused and frustrated Mr. Obama’s plans to cooperate on addressing climate change. It was clear that America would need a stronger West to get China’s attention. The key advantage of a new trade partnership with Europe is that it has a strong political and security foundation. It will be a peaceful but powerful alliance will add elements of technology, military strength and political will to resuscitate the West in its dealings with the rest of the world.
怀疑论者将争辩，这只是已经很坚固的关系的渐进提升，而且西方不需要新的贸易协定就能够把中国拉进来。但是，美国试过了并且失败了。2009年，美国试图与中国建立一个双边贸易集团G2，但是中国领导人拒绝了，并且打乱了奥巴马就应对气候变化进行合作的计划。很显然美国需要一个更强大的西方，以获得中国的注意力。与欧洲建立新的贸易伙伴关系，主要好处是，这种关系有着强大的政治与安全基础。这将是一个和平而强大的联盟，将会在西方与世界其他地方的合作中注入技术、军事力量，及政治决心，从而复兴西方。
In the end, trade — not war — will attract others to the West’s economic core.
到了最后，贸易而非战争会将其他国家引向西方的经济核心。


Richard N. Rosecrance is an [要查看本链接请先注册并登录] of public policy at the Harvard Kennedy School and the author of “The Resurgence of the West: How a Trans-Atlantic Union Can Prevent War and Restore the United States and Europe.”
 


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理查德·N·罗斯克兰斯(Richard N. Rosecrance)是哈佛大学肯尼迪学院的公共政策副教授，著有《西方复兴——跨大西洋联盟如何阻止战争并恢复欧美地位》(The Resurgence of the West: How a Trans-Atlantic Union Can Prevent War and Restore the United States and Europe)。