美国经济的“春困”是暂时的吗？

Economic Slowdown Is Expected, but It’s Seen as Fleeting
By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ August 01, 2013

美国经济的“春困”是暂时的吗？
NELSON D. SCHWARTZ 2013年08月01日
It can only get better from here — or at least that’s what economists hope.
接下来形势只会好转。至少经济学家们是这么期望的。
New data from the government due out Wednesday is expected to show that the economy came close to stalling during the spring quarter, which ran from April through June. But many experts say the latest slowdown is likely to be temporary. Buoyed by a healthier housing sector, a surging stock market and resilient consumer spending, they say, economic activity should rebound in the second half of 2013 and accelerate into 2014.
定于周三公布的政府新数据预计将显示，今年4月到6月的春季季度，美国经济近乎停滞。不过，许多专家认为，这轮最新的放缓很可能是暂时的。他们称，在更健康的房地产市场、飙升的股市和强劲的消费者支出的提振下，经济活动应该会在2013年下半年反弹，并在进入2014年时加速。
“We’ve been saying for some time that second-quarter growth would be the weak spot this year,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS. “This is the spring swoon. But I wouldn’t panic — there is a very specific reason for it, and it will start to wear off.”
环球通视(IHS)的首席经济师纳里曼·贝拉维许(Nariman Behravesh)称，“我们早就在说，第二季度的增长将是今年的薄弱环节。这就是‘春困’。不过我不会惊慌，这场‘春困’是有特殊原因的，而且即将开始消退。”
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Justin Lane/European Pressphoto Agency
纽约证券交易所的一名交易员。预计今年下半年的经济增速会好转。
“Housing has been sizzling and consumers are spending at a decent pace,” he added. “Businesses have held back so far, but will begin to get on board.”
“房地产市场逐渐升温，消费者支出的步伐也很稳健，”他补充说。“到目前为止，企业还有所保留，但马上就会加入支出的行列。”
But haven’t we heard that one before? The latest swoon looks a lot like the previous pauses that have prevented the economy from gaining much momentum since the recession ended in 2009.
但是，这话是不是有点耳熟？这轮最新的“春困”与之前的数次停滞十分类似，自2009年经济衰退终结以来，这几次停滞使美国经济增长难以成势。
Experts estimate that the economy grew at an annual rate of under 1 percent in the second quarter, half the already tepid pace of growth in the first quarter of 2013. Much of that weakness stems from the tax increases and automatic cuts in government spending that went into effect earlier this year, headwinds that should gradually ease in the quarters to come unless Washington makes things worse by cutting spending further or Congress and the White House send markets into a swoon by failing to agree on a painless way to raise the nation’s [要查看本链接请先注册并登录].
专家估计，2013年第二季度的年化增长率不到1%，是第一季度已嫌平淡的增长率的一半。这种疲弱有很大一部分源于今年早些时候生效的政府支出自动削减，除非华盛顿让日子更难过（进一步削减开支，或者国会和白宫不能太太平平地就提高美国的举债上限达成一致，导致市场大跌），否则这股逆风应当在接下来的几个季度逐渐减弱。
[要查看本链接请先注册并登录] policy makers, who are set to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday, will be closely analyzing these crosscurrents. The central bank has been purchasing $85 billion a month in [要查看本链接请先注册并登录] and government-backed mortgages — a program which the Fed’s chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, has hinted will be slowly wound down later this year if the economy proves strong enough.
美联储的政策制定者定于本周二和周三开会，他们将仔细分析这些错综复杂的趋势。作为美国的央行，该机构目前每月购买850亿美元（约合5200亿元人民币）的国债和政府担保的抵押贷款。美联储主席本·伯南克(Ben S. Bernanke)已做出暗示，如果经济足够强劲，将从今年晚些时候起慢慢缩减资产购买。
The Fed is not expected to signal a change in direction when it issues its latest statement early Wednesday afternoon. The data on economic growth due out Wednesday morning, however, as well as the latest figures on employment that will be released by the Labor Department on Friday, could help determine whether the Fed begins tapering back as early as September or instead waits until December or even longer.
在定于本周三午后发布的最新声明中，预计美联储不会发出转向的信号。不过，定于周三早间公布的经济数据，加上劳工部将于周五发布的最新就业数据，可能有助于判断美联储会在9月就开始缩减，还是会等到12月或者更晚才动手。
“The Fed will have a lot of information,” said Michelle Meyer, senior United States economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “Our baseline scenario is that December is marginally more likely than September, but it is a very close call.”
美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的资深美国经济师米歇尔·梅耶(Michelle Meyer)说，“美联储会有大量信息。我们预测的基线情景是，12月份的可能性略微超过9月份，不过两者相当接近。”
Wall Street is intensely focused on when the Fed will begin easing back, and traders will be paying close attention to any change in the language of the Fed’s statement. In May and June, stocks fell after Mr. Bernanke seemed to suggest the tapering could begin soon.
华尔街正密切关注美联储开始缩减资产购买的时间，交易员们将密切关注美联储声明的措辞有没有任何变化。今年5月和6月，在伯南克似乎暗示不久就可能开始缩减后，股市应声下挫。
Since then, though, Wall Street has bounced back and Mr. Bernanke emphasized in testimony before Congress earlier this month that the central bank was committed to bolstering the economy, easing fears of an abrupt tapering. In fact, he highlighted the risk that “tight federal fiscal policy will restrain economic growth over the next few quarters by more than we currently expect.”
不过，自那以来华尔街已经反弹，而且本月早些时候伯南克在国会作证时强调，美联储致力于扶持经济，从而缓解了外界对于骤然缩减的忧虑。事实上，伯南克还强调了这样一个风险，即“从紧的联邦财政政策将在未来几个季度约束经济增长，其程度超出我们目前的预期”。
Other questions are looming, too. Besides the issue of whether businesses will start investing at a faster pace, the recent rise in mortgage rates has some observers worried that the housing market could cool. The National Association of Realtors reported on Monday that its index for pending home sales dropped 0.4 percent in June, a sign buyers may be getting more cautious as borrowing costs increase.
其他一些问题也隐约可见。除了企业是否会以更快的节奏开始投资的问题以外，按揭利率近期的上涨也让一些观察人士担心房地产市场可能冷却。全美房地产经纪人协会(National Association of Realtors)周一公布数据显示，6月份的成屋待完成销售指数下跌了0.4%，这表明，随着借贷成本上升，买家或许正变得更加谨慎。
More clues about the health of the housing sector will come on Tuesday, with the release of the latest figures in the S.& P./Case-Shiller index for home prices. Economists are expecting the index for May to post a 12.3 percent gain over the same month a year earlier, a reflection of what has been a strengthening housing market in many parts of the country. The Conference Board is also scheduled to report its latest reading on consumer confidence on Tuesday.
更多关于住房市场健康状况的线索将在周二出现，届时将发布标普/凯斯-希勒20房价指数(S&P/Case-Shiller 20 index)的最新数据。经济师们预计，今年5月该指数将同比上升12.3%，这反映出美国许多地方的房地产市场正在增强。世界大企业联合会(Conference Board)也计划在周二报告最新的消费者信心指数。
Experts who are fairly optimistic in the long-term, like Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, caution that Wednesday’s numbers on overall economic performance could look rather bleak.
对长期经济走势相当乐观的专家——如潘西恩宏观经济咨询公司(Pantheon Macroeconomics)首席经济师伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)——告诫，周三发布的整体经济表现数据可能看上去相当黯淡。
“The second quarter was horrible, no matter how you slice it,” he said. “The crunch in government spending is holding back growth and it doesn’t just appear in the government component. It feeds pretty much into everything.”
“无论你怎么解读，第二季度都糟透了，”他说。“政府支出紧缩正在阻碍经济增长，而且这不仅发生在政府部门，它差不多蔓延至各行各业。”
Mr. Shepherdson is actually a bit more pessimistic about the current situation than many of his peers — he says he believes the economy grew at only 0.5 to 0.6 percent in the second quarter — but he emphasized that Wednesday’s report on gross domestic product was something of a wild card.
实际上，谢泼德森对当前形势的判断比他的很多同行更为悲观一些。他认为第二季度的经济增长率仅为0.5%到0.6%，但他强调，周三报告的国内生产总值(GDP)有点像一张猜不透的牌。
Inventory changes are hard to predict, as is the full impact of the cutbacks in Washington.
库存变化很难预测，华盛顿削减支出的全面影响也是。
“We could be anywhere from minus 0.5 percent to plus 1.5 percent,” he said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a negative number.”
他说，“这个数字可能处在负0.5%到正1.5%这个区间内的任何一点。如果看到负值，我不会吃惊。”
Even as economists on Wall Street, at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere study the data for the second quarter, government statisticians at the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis will also be undertaking a comprehensive revision of how they measure the economy itself.
就在华尔街、美联储和其他地方的经济师纷纷研究第二季度的数据之时，商务部经济分析局(Bureau of Economic Analysis)的政府统计师也在对如何测算经济进行一次全面的修改。
The bureau will now count expenditures on research and development as akin to more traditional business investment, as well as make adjustments for the value of artistic property like movies and books. Pension plans will also be measured differently. It is the first revision of its kind since July 2009.
经济分析局现在将把研发开支算作类似于更传统的商业投资的项目，并对诸如电影和书籍这样的艺术资产的价值进行调整。养老金计划的核算方式也会有所改变。这是自2009年7月以来首次进行此类修改。
All together, these changes will affect reports of economic activity going back decades and are expected to increase the estimated size of the American economy by roughly $400 billion. That may be less than 3 percent of the nation’s $16 trillion in annual output, but it’s larger than the entire economy of dozens of countries.
总体来讲，这些调整将会影响过去几十年的经济活动数据，预计会使美国经济的估算规模增加约4000亿美元。这个数字或许不及美国16万亿美元年度产出的3%，但已经高出几十个国家的经济总量。
And while no one will notice the difference in their own lives, in the world of economics, the bureau’s revision is a major event. “For numbers geeks like myself,” Mr. Behravesh said, “these changes are anticipated with great interest.”
虽然没有人会在自身生活中注意到这一差别，但在经济学界，该局的调整措施却是一件大事。贝拉维许说，“对像我这样的数字迷来说，这些调整让人翘首以盼。”