暂缓重启美俄关系也无妨cnn

Op-Ed Contributor
America and Russia Can Skip a Reboot
By JOB C. HENNING August 03, 2013
观点
暂缓重启美俄关系也无妨
乔布·海宁 2013年08月03日
One often hears that the United States needs to work on overcoming mistrust and improving relations with Russia, based on purported shared interests. All the while, however, the relationship seems to careen from crisis to crisis, ranging from Syria to Snowden.
我们总是听人说，美国在对待俄罗斯的问题上，应该基于所谓的共同利益，克服不信任，改善两国关系。可是与此同时，美俄关系又始终无法摆脱一个接一个的危机，从叙利亚到斯诺登。
The fact is this time any effort to reboot ties with Russia isn’t likely to work. Whatever the merits of the “reset” effort in 2009, it is not a good idea for Washington to spend time and political capital to once again try to build a strategic partnership.
现实就是，这一次，任何重启美俄关系的努力都不太可能奏效。对美国政府来说，不管它在2009年“重设”两国关系的努力多么富有成效，再次投入时间和政治资本，以求建立美俄战略伙伴关系都不是一个好主意。
First, arms control, which was a key focus of the “reset” and is at the center of calls for new efforts to rebuild a relationship. While the United States sees the [要查看本链接请先注册并登录] as a step toward a zero-nuclear world, the Russian government has shown no interest in further reducing its nuclear capability, especially given its weakening economic prospects and declining conventional forces.
首先，军备控制是“重设”两国关系的核心重点，它也引发各界呼吁，双方为重建两国关系作出新的努力。尽管美国把2010年的新《削减战略武器条约》([要查看本链接请先注册并登录])作为迈向零核武世界的一步，俄罗斯政府对进一步削减自身核能力却没有表露出丝毫兴趣，考虑到俄罗斯日渐黯淡的经济前景和不断下降的常规军力，这一点尤其明显。
[要查看本图请先注册并登录]
Gorka Sampedro

If there are any doubts, note that Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel failed to elicit any positive response from the Kremlin when [要查看本链接请先注册并登录] a unilateral decision not to build the fourth and final phase of the European missile defense shield, which was to include long-range interceptors that would have done more than any other part of the program to undermine Russia’s strategic deterrent.
如果你对此有任何疑义，那么请注意，国防部长查克·哈格尔(Chuck Hagel)今年3月宣布的一项单方决定，没能引起俄方的任何积极回应。决定的内容是，不再建设欧洲导弹防御系统的第四和第五期工程，而它们本会将远程***纳入系统，对于削弱俄罗斯的战略威慑，这两期发挥的功效，要大于该计划里的任何其他部分。
As desirable as they may be, President Obama’s [要查看本链接请先注册并登录] for further reductions in deployed nuclear weapons and a discussion of limitations on tactical nuclear weapons are likely to fall on deaf ears.
上个月，奥巴马在柏林呼吁，进一步削减已部署的核武器，并就限制战术核武器展开讨论，尽管他的呼吁深得人心，俄罗斯却很可能充耳不闻。
Second, renewed attention to a strategic U.S.-Russia relationship, especially one based on an atavistic platform of great-power arms control, is likely to augment the waning domestic support for Vladimir Putin.
其次，对美俄战略关系的再次关注，尤其在其建立在控制大国军备的旧日平台的基础上时，很可能会逐步提升俄罗斯国内对弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)日渐减弱的支持。
There is no indication Putin has a need to actually reach any deals with the United States; on the contrary, he wins by demonstrating that the United States needs him.
没有迹象显示，普京需要实打实地和美国达成任何交易；与此相反，他能获得好处，靠的是向外界展示美国需要他。
At the same time, trying to reformulate a relationship around criticizing Russia’s human-rights record would achieve little other than to empower cynics who see such criticism only as a tool to weaken Russia.
与此同时，设法围绕批评俄罗斯人权纪录重设两国关系，除了助长怀疑论者，几乎没有其他益处，这些人只会把批评视为削弱俄罗斯的一种手段。
Third, cooperation on Iran is often described as a key benefit of the “reset” and a goal of an improved relationship. But Russia supported three rounds of U.N. sanctions on Iran prior to the “reset,” in 2006-2008. And over the past several months Russia has been warding off new sanctions as Iran promises to stop enrichment at the 20 percent threshold. At the same time, the Russian-built civilian Bushehr nuclear reactor in Iran has come on line, and in Moscow, Putin welcomed the outgoing Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to discuss energy exports, space cooperation and joint naval training in the Caspian.
再次，美俄在伊朗问题上的合作常被形容为“重设”两国关系带来的一个关键好处，也是改善关系后的一个目标。然而，在两国关系被“重设”之前的2006年到2008年之间，俄罗斯支持联合国(UN)对伊朗实施了三轮制裁。在过去几个月里，俄罗斯一直在抗拒对伊朗实施新制裁，原因是伊朗承诺，将在20%的浓度界限，停止铀浓缩活动。与此同时，俄罗斯在蒲式耳建造的民用核反应堆已经投产，在莫斯科，普京欢迎离任的伊朗总统马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪-内贾德(Mahmoud Ahmadinejad)到访该国，并和他讨论了能源出口、太空合作及在里海举行海军联合军演等议题。
While Russian cooperation on sanctions against Iran is important, it is not the product of a strategic relationship between Russia and the United States, but a tactical calculation by Russia to constrain Iranian power while at the same time ensuring prolonged tension between Iran and the United States.
尽管在对伊制裁上，俄罗斯的合作相当重要，然而这种合作却不是美俄战略合作伙伴关系的产物，而是俄罗斯的战术考量结果，其目的是遏制伊朗，同时确保伊朗和美国之间的紧张关系持续下去。
Fourth, the short-lived spurt in U.S.-Russia counterterrorism coordination after the Boston bombing was more a product of expediency than common interests. It was important for Putin to demonstrate Russia’s preparedness in the lead-up to the Sochi Winter Olympics. Apart from a very few instances, Russia’s domestic security problems simply have nothing to do with those of the United States.
第四，波士顿爆炸案发生后，美俄之间在反恐方面的突发合作，只是权宜之计，而非共同利益的产物。对普京来说，重要的是在索契冬奥会(Sochi Winter Olympics)的准备阶段，向外界展示俄罗斯已准备就绪。除了屈指可数的个别案例，俄罗斯的国内安全问题和美国国内的安全问题根本毫无关系。
Fifth, regarding Syria, Russia is solely focused on preserving its port and its trade relationship there, while the United States seeks to end the conflict and stabilize the region through a combination of military assistance and training, possible intervention and negotiations. As the death toll rises above 100,000, Russia is sending advanced anti-ship weapons to Syria and indicates no reluctance to proceed with the delivery of S-300 anti-aircraft missiles systems — the only purpose of both being to deter potential action by the international community.
第五，在叙利亚问题上，俄罗斯仅仅关注保住自己在当地的港口和贸易关系，而美国却力图通过军事援助和培训，也许还有干预和谈判，来终结该国的冲突，维持区域稳定。就在该国的死亡人数超过10万人之际，俄罗斯正在向叙利亚运送先进的反舰武器，而且对于继续向当地输送S-300防空导弹系统，没有表露出丝毫的勉强，这两种武器的唯一目的，就是为了防止国际社会采取任何行动。
The fact that such shipments are not currently prohibited by multilateral sanctions is a failure of strategy and diplomacy — but also beside the point. Strengthening Bashar al-Assad’s ability to shoot down U.S. and allied planes is outrageous by any standard.
目前，多边制裁没有禁止类似的运输行动，这个事实是战略和外交上的失败，不过这么说还是没有切中要害。无论根据任何标准衡量，这种加强巴沙尔·阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)击落美国和盟国飞机能力的行为，都是可耻的。
Finally, in Georgia, Russian troops continue to occupy the sovereign territory of another state — a country that last year held free and fair elections that led to a peaceful transfer of power and is *** a notable contribution to allied military operations in Afghanistan.
最后一点，在格鲁吉亚，俄罗斯部队持续占领着另一个国家的主权领土，这个国家于去年举行了自由公正的选举，实现了权力的和平交接，而且正在为阿富汗的联合军事行动做出引人注目的贡献。
These divergent interests simply will not support a new and productive strategic relationship between the United States and Russia. But sometimes there is nothing wrong with maintaining a tactical, opportunistic relationship. Washington should remain ready to exploit opportunities for cooperation with Putin on issues where interests do happen to overlap.
这些互不相同的利益根本无法支持美俄之间结成富有成效的新战略关系。不过有时，维持一种投机取巧的战术关系并无不妥。美方应该继续做好准备，利用任何机会，在双方利益确有重合的议题上展开合作。
At the same time, the United States should focus its strategic attention elsewhere. As it settles into its second term, the Obama administration can exercise far-reaching global leadership through a reinvigorated trans-Atlantic alliance, the pivot to Asia, and free trade negotiations in the Pacific and the Atlantic.
同时，美国应该把战略关注点放在其他地方。随着奥巴马政府适应了第二任期的节奏，它可以通过重焕生机的跨大西洋联盟、“转向亚洲”战略，以及在太平洋与大西洋区域进行的自由贸易谈判，来发挥覆盖全球的深远领导力。