美国经济缓慢增长之谜

Analysis
U.S. Economy Grew 1.7% During the 2nd Quarter, Topping Forecasts
By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ and CATHERINE RAMPELL August 01, 2013
分析
美国经济缓慢增长之谜
NELSON D. SCHWARTZ, CATHERINE RAMPELL 2013年08月01日
The American economy managed to stay on track last quarter, defying fears of another spring swoon, but doubts remain as to whether it will finally gain the kind of sustained momentum that has proved so elusive since the recovery began four years ago.
上个季度，美国经济成功地保持了原有轨迹，没有让人们对“春困”再次出现的担心变成现实，但人们仍然怀疑它最终能否获得持续的增长势头。事实证明，自四年前美国经济开始恢复以来，持续的增长就有些可望而不可及。
The mixed picture facing the country was evident on Wednesday, as the Commerce Department reported that the economy, adjusted for inflation, expanded at a better-than-expected annual rate of 1.7 percent in the April-June quarter, even as inflation-adjusted growth in the first part of the year now appears slower than first thought. In a separate statement after a two-day meeting of policy makers at the Federal Reserve, the central bank said the economy was on a “modest” trajectory but gave no clue as to when it might start tapering back its huge stimulus efforts.
本周三，美国所面临的复杂局面表现得很明显。商务部(Commerce Department)当日报告称，将通胀因素考虑在内，4月至6月这一季度的经济增长好于预期，其年化增长率为1.7%，虽然上半年考虑膨胀因素后的增长率似乎比预想的要低。与此同时，美联储(Federal Reserve)的政策制定者召开了一次为期两天的会议。中央银行在会后单独发表声明称，经济处于“略有”增长的状态，不过，该行并未表明将从何时开始缩减其大规模刺激举措。
Like economists and traders, as well as the 12 million unemployed Americans looking for work, the Fed is struggling to gauge whether better growth does indeed lie ahead.
与经济学家、商人，以及正在找工作的1200万美国失业人员一样，美联储也难以预计经济增长势头是否真的会出现好转。
[要查看本图请先注册并登录]
Richard Drew/Associated Press
美联储称利率保持不变后的纽交所。
Optimists point to improved levels of job creation in recent months, a more robust housing sector and a surging stock market that has lifted the value of investment and retirement accounts for millions of consumers. Pessimists focus on the fact that the estimated economic growth rate of about 1.4 percent so far in 2013 is well below last year’s levels of 2.8 percent, even as automatic cuts in federal spending and higher taxes continue to bite.
乐观主义者指出，新增就业机会的水平已于最近几个月出现改善，房产市场也变得更加强劲，股价的飙升还提高了数百万消费者的投资和退休金的价值。悲观主义者关注的事实则是，目前，2013年的预期经济增长率大约为1.4%，远低于去年2.8%的水平，而联邦的自动减支和较高税收还在继续产生负面影响。
There were pockets of strength in Wednesday’s data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, all of which will be subject to further revision as the Commerce Department gathers more information about the economy. For example, residential fixed investment increased by 13.4 percent, a sign that housing continues to rebound. Personal consumption rose 1.8 percent, as consumers showed some resiliency, especially given the increase in payroll taxes at the beginning of 2013.
经济分析局(Bureau of Economic Analysis)周三的数据呈现了不少乐观因素，随着商务部搜集到更多的经济信息，所有这些数据都面临进一步修改。例如，居民固定投资增加了13.4%，意味着房产市场在持续复苏。个人消费增加了1.8%，表明消费者的购买力有所增强，考虑到美国在2013年初提高了个人所得税，这一点尤其可喜。
Additionally, government experts have introduced the first comprehensive change in four years in how the economy is measured. They revised figures all the way back to 1929, while also restating more recent data to show that the 2007-9 recession was slightly milder than originally estimated and growth in 2012 was a bit better.
此外，政府专家还对测评经济的方法做了全面调整，这是四年里的第一次。他们修改了1929年以来的所有数据，并且再次拿出一些更近的数据，借以表明2007年至2009年的经济衰退比原来的估计轻微一些，2012年的经济增长状况也比之前的估计更好。
Still, economists emphasized that although the economy’s performance in the second quarter was significantly stronger than had been feared — Wall Street experts forecast growth would come in at just under 1 percent — big challenges remain.
尽管如此，经济学家强调，虽然第二季度的经济表现比人们所担心的好很多——华尔街专家预计第二季度增长率会在略低于1%的水平——重大挑战却仍然存在。
“The basic story of a deep recession followed by a lackluster recovery is essentially unchanged,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS. Growth in the current quarter, which wraps up at the end of next month, remains a wild card, he added. IHS and other companies do expect a pickup in the second half of 2013, but more fallout from the fiscal tightening in Washington could still be felt, he cautioned.
“深度衰退后迟缓恢复的基本形势没有发生太大变化，”环球通视(IHS)的首席经济学家纳里曼·贝拉维许(Nariman Behravesh)说。他还说，将于下月结束的第三季度增长状况仍然难有定论。IHS和其他一些公司确实预计2013年下半年的经济增长会加快速度，但他提醒称，美国政府的财政紧缩政策仍会产生更多消极影响。
“So far the effects have been fairly muted,” Mr. Behravesh said. “We’re puzzling over that.”
“截至目前，影响还相当有限，”贝拉维许说，“我们对此颇为不解。”
Were it not for the federal cuts, growth would have been close to 2 percent in both the first and second quarters, said Steve Blitz, chief economist at ITG Investment Research. But that’s about the best Americans can hope for, he said, at least in 2013.
ITG投资研究(ITG Investment Research)的首席经济学家史蒂夫·布利茨(Steve Blitz)说，如果联邦不削减开支，第一季度和第二季度的增长率都将接近2%。他说，但这基本上可以算是美国所能期望的最好结果，至少在2013年是如此。
“I don’t see the economy breaking away from that 2 percent rate for now,” Mr. Blitz said. He is more optimistic about 2014, when he said he thought the annual rate of growth could rise to about 3.5 percent. “The economy will have adjusted to the downshift in federal spending by then, and Europe won’t be decelerating as rapidly, nor will China and Japan,” he said.
布利茨说，“目前，我看不到经济突破2%增长率的前景。”布利茨对2014年的经济形势持比较乐观的态度，并且表示，他认为那时的年增长率可能会达到大约3.5%。他说，“到那时，经济将会适应联邦开支的缩减，欧洲地区的经济不会像现在这样迅速下滑，中国和日本也不会。”
The pace at which spending by the federal government is dropping stabilized last quarter. It fell by 1.5 percent, compared with an 8.4 percent decrease in the first quarter of 2013 and a 13.9 percent plunge in the final quarter of 2012.
上个季度，联邦政府削减开支的速度得到了稳定，减少了1.5%。联邦政府开支在2013年第一季度下降了8.4%，在2012年最后一个季度则剧减了13.9%。
More clues about the economy’s performance will come on Friday, when the Labor Department reports on monthly job creation and the unemployment rate. Economists estimate the economy created 185,000 jobs in July, according to a Bloomberg survey, a bit below the 195,000 level in June, with the unemployment rate falling to 7.5 percent, from 7.6 percent.
美国劳工部(Labor Department)将于周五公布每月的就业情况及失业率，为评估经济表现提供更多的线索。根据彭博社(Bloomberg)的一项调查，经济学家估计，7月的经济发展创造了18.5万个就业机会，略低于6月份19.5万的水平，失业率则从7.6%降到了7.5%。
In a separate report on Wednesday, Automatic Data Processing reported that private sector employers added 200,000 jobs in July, a bit above what analysts had expected. While the A.D.P. report does not always align with the broader figures released by the Labor Department, the figure was interpreted as another positive sign. A.D.P. also increased its original estimate of the number of private sector jobs added in June to 198,000, from 188,000.
在周三公布的一份独立报告中，ADP公司(Automatic Data Processing)报告称，私营部门雇主7月份创造了20万个就业岗位，略高于分析人士的预期。虽然ADP的报告并不总是与劳工部公布的整体数据一致，该数据仍然被解读为又一个积极迹象。ADP还将私营部门在6月份创造的就业岗位的估计数字从最初的18.8万增加到了19.8万。
One of the biggest economic puzzles this year is why job creation has been relatively healthy — the economy added an average of 202,000 jobs a month in the first half of 2013, consistent with an economic expansion of 2.5 percent to 3 percent — when the actual rate reported by the government was only half that.
2013年上半年平均每月增加20.2万个就业机会，对应的是2.5%至3%的经济增长速度。今年最大的经济谜题之一是，政府公布的实际增长速度只达到了上述速度的一半，就业情况为什么仍然相对良好。
One explanation is that the government has underestimated the true strength of the economy, and will revise it upward at some point in the future, much as the Bureau of Economic Analysis raised its estimate for growth in gross domestic product in 2012 to 2.8 percent, from 2.2 percent, on Wednesday.
一个解释是，政府低估了经济的真正表现，并会在未来某一时间上调数字，就像商务部经济分析局一样，该机构于周三将2012年的国内生产总值增长率从2.2%上调至2.8%。
The revisions also suggest that the recession, which lasted from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2009, was slightly less damaging to overall output, even as the subsequent recovery was somewhat stronger. Based on the latest measures, inflation-adjusted output growth decreased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent during that time, instead of the previously reported 3.2 percent. The government frequently recalibrates its tools for measuring the economy. Wednesday signaled the first time the Bureau of Economic Analysis broke out a separate category for what it calls “intellectual property products,” which covers research and development; entertainment, literary and artistic originals; and software.
该局所做的调整还说明，从2007年第四季度持续至2009年第二季度的经济衰退对总体产出造成的损害略小于先前的估计，与此同时，随后出现的经济复苏势头也比先前的估计略强。基于最新的估计，那段时间，通过通货膨胀调整后的产出下降年平均幅度为2.9%，而不是之前所说的3.2%。政府经常调整自己评估经济状况的工具。周三的报告标志着商务部经济分析局首次将所谓的“知识产权产品”列为一个单独类别，该类别涉及研发、娱乐、文学及艺术原创作品，以及软件。
Another possibility is that the uncertainty that held back job creation in the last few years has begun to fade, said Dean Maki, chief United States economist at Barclays. Shocks like the economic crisis in Europe as well as the federal debt standoff and credit downgrade in the United States have started to fade in the rearview mirror, he said, encouraging some employers to catch up in terms of hiring.
巴克莱银行(Barclays)首席美国经济学家迪安·梅基(Dean Maki)表示，另一种可能性是，过去几年抑制新增就业机会的不确定性已经开始逐渐消失。他表示，欧洲经济危机、美国联邦债务僵局及信用评级下调等问题带来的冲击已经开始渐渐消退，促使一些雇主加大了招聘员工的力度。
“Our models tell us that when uncertainty spikes, job growth slows relative to growth in G.D.P.,” Mr. Maki said. “But uncertainty only delays activity, it doesn’t destroy it. Employers gradually add jobs back over time and we think that’s what’s going on.”
“我们的模式告诉我们，当不确定性达到峰值时，相对于GDP增长来说，就业增长会放缓，”梅基说，“但不确定性只会延迟商业活动，并不会破坏它。随着时间的推移，雇主们逐渐增加就业岗位。我们认为，这就是事情的真相。”