阿拉伯之春，送走獨裁迎來動蕩

Arab Spring Countries Find Peace Is Harder Than Revolution
By BEN HUBBARD and RICK GLADSTONE August 15, 2013

阿拉伯之春，送走獨裁迎來動蕩
BEN HUBBARD, RICK GLADSTONE 2013年08月15日
BEIRUT — In Libya, armed militias have filled a void left by a revolution that felled a dictator. In Syria, a popular uprising has morphed into a civil war that has left more than 100,000 dead and provided a haven for Islamic extremists. In Tunisia, increasingly bitter political divisions have delayed the drafting of a new constitution.
貝魯特——在利比亞，武裝人員填補了革命推翻獨裁者之後的真空。在敘利亞，民眾起義演變為了一場內戰，內戰造成超過10萬人死亡，還為伊斯蘭極端主義者提供了庇護。在突尼斯，起草新憲法一事也因為愈演愈烈的政治分歧而推遲。
And now in Egypt, often considered the trendsetter of the Arab world, the army and security forces, after having toppled the elected Islamist president, have killed hundreds of his supporters, declared a state of emergency and worsened a deep polarization.
再來看今天的埃及，在這個經常被視作阿拉伯世界潮流引領者的國家，軍隊和安全部隊推翻了民選的伊斯蘭派總統，隨後又殺害了總統的數百名支持者，宣布國家進入緊急狀態，加劇了業已嚴重的兩極分化。
It is clear that the region’s old status quo, dominated by imperious rulers who fixed elections, ruled by fiat and quashed dissent, has been fundamentally damaged, if not overthrown, in the three years since the outbreak of the uprisings optimistically known as the Arab Spring. That was amply illustrated on Wednesday in Egypt, where a reversion to the repressive tactics of the past was met with deep outrage by Islamist protesters who had tasted empowerment.
顯而易見，這片地區的舊秩序——由專橫的統治者控制，他們操縱選舉、靠專制命令來統治國家、鎮壓異見人士——即便還沒有被徹底推翻，至少也從根本上遭到了損毀。這一切都發生在被人們樂觀地稱作阿拉伯之春(Arab Spring)的運動爆發後的三年之中。本周三，這一點在埃及得到了充分展現。政府重拾過去那種鎮壓策略，引來的只是已經嘗過掌權滋味的伊斯蘭抗議者的強烈憤怒。
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Mohammed Abdel Moneim/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
一名女子站在一名受傷抗議者身旁阻攔安全部隊的推土機。
What is unclear, however, is the replacement model. Most of the uprisings have devolved into bitter struggles, as a mix of political powers battle over the rules of participation, the relationship between the military and the government, the role of religion in public life and what it means to be a citizen, not a subject.
然而，不那麼明顯的是這裡該採用怎樣的替代模式。各種政治力量在參政規則、軍政關係、宗教在公共生活中的角色，以及怎樣才是公民而非臣民等問題上爭戰不休，致使大多數抗議運動都演變成了痛苦的鬥爭。
Middle East historians and analysts say that the political and economic stagnation under decades of autocratic rule that led to the uprisings also left Arab countries ill equipped to build new governments and civil society. While some of the movements achieved their initial goals, removing longtime leaders in four countries, their wider aims — democracy, dignity, human rights, social equality and economic security — now appear more distant than ever.
中東歷史學家和分析人士說，數十年的獨裁統治使當地的政治和經濟陷入停滯，這種停滯不僅引起了抗議運動，還導致阿拉伯國家缺乏建設新政府和公民社會的基礎。雖然有些運動達到了最初目標，推翻了四個國家的長期統治者，但是，從目前來看，它們那些更遠大的目標——民主、尊嚴、人權、社會平等和經濟安全——似乎比以往任何時候都更加遙不可及。
“The old regional order has gone, the new regional order is being drawn in blood, and it is going to take a long time,” said Sarkis Naoum, a political analyst at Lebanon’s An Nahar newspaper.
黎巴嫩報紙《白天報》(An Nahar)的政治分析人士薩爾基斯 ·納烏姆(Sarkis Naoum)說，「舊的地區秩序已經消失，人們正在用鮮血描繪新的地區秩序，而且，這需要很長的一段時間。」
“All the people in those countries lived under similar suppression despite the differences in their regimes, so the uprisings were contagious,” Mr. Naoum said. “But nobody in Syria, Libya, Egypt or Tunisia who wanted to get rid of the regime was prepared for what came next.”
「這些國家的獨裁政府各有不同，所有國家的人民卻都生活在相似的壓迫之下，所以抗議運動會相互傳染，」納烏姆說。「但是，在敘利亞、利比亞、埃及或突尼斯那些想推翻獨裁政府的人當中，沒有誰為接下來的事情做好了準備。」
In many ways, the Arab Spring has revealed and exacerbated deep societal splits, between secularists and Islamists and between different religious sects.
從許多方面來說，阿拉伯之春暴露且加劇了世俗主義者和伊斯蘭主義者之間，以及不同宗教派別之間深刻的社會分歧。
“This is political polarization on steroids,” said Jeffrey Martini, a Middle East specialist at the RAND Corporation. “You’ve got both sides trying to banish each other from politics.”
「這是嚴重過度的政治兩極分化，」蘭德公司(RAND Corporation)的中東問題專家傑弗里·馬丁尼(Jeffrey Martini)說。「雙方都想把對方趕出政治舞台。」
In Tunisia, the birthplace of the uprisings, the moderate Islamist party now in power has been unable to build sufficient consensus to draft a new constitution, and opposition leaders have been assassinated. And in the Persian Gulf kingdom of Bahrain, overwhelming force by the ruling Sunni monarchy has failed to silence dissent by the country’s Shiite majority.
在抗議運動的發源地突尼斯，目前掌權的溫和伊斯蘭黨派一直未能建立起草新憲法所需的足夠共識，一些反對派領導人也遭到了暗殺。在波斯灣的巴林王國，執政的遜尼派君主雖然擁有壓倒性的強大力量，但卻還是未能使巴林的什葉派多數派停止表達異議。
Political exclusion has also afflicted Egypt’s transition. After winning post-revolutionary elections, Mohamed Morsi, the now-deposed president, and his allies in the Muslim Brotherhood faced fierce opposition from those who accused them of perverting democracy as a way of monopolizing power.
政治排斥還阻礙了埃及的過渡進程。在贏得後革命時代的選舉後，現已被罷黜的總統穆罕默德·穆爾西(Mohamed Morsi)及他在穆斯林兄弟會(Muslim Brotherhood)的盟友遭到了一些人的強烈反對，這些人指責穆爾西和穆兄會扭曲民主，目的是壟斷權力。
Throughout the region, the upheavals have so far failed to address the demands of millions of ordinary citizens who had clamored for change — for jobs, food, health care and basic human dignity. If anything, their grievances have worsened.
縱觀整個地區，到目前為止，動亂並沒有滿足數百萬普通百姓的需求，他們強烈要求改變現狀，要求獲得工作、食物、醫療保健及基本的人格尊嚴。如果說情況有什麼改變的話，那就是他們的不滿進一步加深。
“Most Middle East economies buffeted by the Arab Spring were already going in the wrong direction,” said Joshua M. Landis, director of the Center of Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma. Economic distress caused by swelling youth populations, joblessness, rising prices and drought, he said, had done as much to cause the uprisings as political ***.
俄克拉荷馬大學(University of Oklahoma)中東研究中心(Center of Middle East Studies)主任喬舒亞·M·蘭迪斯(Joshua M.Landis)說，「大多數受到阿拉伯之春衝擊的中東國家都已經在朝錯誤的方向行進了。」他表示，青年人口膨脹、失業問題、物價上漲及乾旱導致了經濟不景氣，這是跟政治壓迫同樣重要的動亂起因。
In many ways, he said, “the Arab Spring is the canary in the mine shaft for a broader problem — fragmented countries, too much population growth, terrible education systems, too little water — these countries are the losers.”
他表示，從很多方面來看，「阿拉伯之春就像是礦井裡的金絲雀，提醒我們注意一個更廣泛的問題，即這些國家都是失敗者——國家分裂、人口增長過快、教育系統差勁、水資源太少。」
The current turmoil has left many Arab activists disillusioned with the movements for which they had invested tremendous effort and often risked their lives.
目前的動亂已經使很多阿拉伯活動人士對自己的運動不再抱有幻想，儘管他們曾為此投入巨大努力，經常還得冒着生命危險。
Historians note that fundamental political change anywhere can take decades or generations. The Prague Spring of 1968 may have failed, for example, but it was a catalyst for changes in Eastern Europe that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s.
歷史學家指出，無論是在哪個地方，根本的政治改革都需要數十年以至幾代人的時間。比如，1968年的布拉格之春(Prague Spring)或許確實以失敗告終，但這場運動是東歐劇變的催化劑，東歐劇變導致蘇聯在20世紀90年代解體。
The European revolutions of 1848, a series of popular upheavals that were the most widespread revolutionary wave in European history, affected more than 50 countries but soon collapsed under the repression of military forces loyal to royalties and aristocracies. Nonetheless, they sowed the seeds of progressive political ideas that would help shape European history for the next hundred years.
1848年的歐洲革命對50多個國家產生了影響，但在效忠於皇室與貴族的軍事力量的鎮壓下，革命迅速失敗。這一系列廣受支持的動亂成為了歐洲歷史上範圍最廣的革命浪潮。儘管沒有成功，這些動亂還是散播了進步政治觀念的種子，這些觀念會在一定程度上改寫歐洲未來幾百年的歷史。
Historians said that given the repressive autocracies among Arab countries, the convulsions in Egypt and elsewhere were painful but inevitable.
歷史學家表示，考慮到阿拉伯國家壓迫性的專制統治，埃及和其他地方的動亂雖然代價慘痛，但卻仍然不可避免。
“I am not writing these transitions off — I just think we’re heading into a period of extreme unrest,” said Mona Yacoubian, a senior Middle East adviser at the Stimson Center, a nonpartisan research group in Washington.
華盛頓無黨派研究機構史汀生中心(Stimson Center)的中東問題資深顧問莫納·雅各賓(Mona Yacoubian)說，「我不是覺得這些轉變不可取——我只是認為，我們正在走進一個極度動蕩的時期。」
Others noted that such turmoil often obscured subtle but profound societal changes. For example, Ziad al-Ali, a Cairo-based constitutional expert, said it had now become normal for citizens of Arab Spring countries to insult their rulers — unthinkable only a few years ago.
其他一些人指出，此類動亂往往掩蓋了那些微小卻影響深遠的社會變革。比如，駐開羅的憲法專家齊亞德·阿里(Ziad al-Ali)表示，阿拉伯之春國家的民眾辱罵統治者已經成為常態，這是短短几年之前都還無法想像的事情。
“This dynamic of free expression, of political liberalization where now you have lots of political parties and people expressing themselves freely, this will lead us in a positive direction in the long run,” he said.
他說，「這是一種表達自由、政治開發的機制，允許很多政黨和人群自由表達自己的意見，長遠看來，這會引導我們朝着積極的方向前行。」
Mohammed al-Sabri, an opposition leader in Yemen, where protests pushed longtime Ali Abdullah Saleh from power last year, said this general sense of empowerment was the most significant accomplishment of the uprisings so far.
也門反對派領導人穆罕默德·薩布里(Mohammed al-Sabri)表示，這種普遍的權利意識是動亂迄目前為止帶來的最重要成果。在也門，抗議活動促使長期執政的阿里·阿卜杜拉·薩利赫(Ali Abdullah Saleh)於去年下台。
“The elites and the leaders in any society, whether it is revolutionary or not, can resign and say, ‘I’m done,’ ” he said. “But the people cannot resign.”
「在任何一個社會中，不管革命與否，那些精英與領導人都可以辭去職位，並說，『我已儘力，』」他說。「但是，人民不能放棄。」